The Pennsylvania House of Representatives is currently under Democratic Party leadership with the slimmest of a majority at 102-D to 101-R. With everything on the line for both parties, more attention to the following house races will be given than ever before.
HD-72: Frank Burns (D)* vs. Amy Bradley (R)
Registration %: 42-D, 47.5-R, 10.5-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 54.54
2020 Presidential Win %: Trump 63.9
Representative Frank Burns has run successful campaigns with his district being won by President Trump by 70% in 2016 and by nearly 64% in 2020. This go-around he faces off against a former TV news anchor and current President & CEO of the Cambria Regional Chamber, Amy Bradley. While redistricting made almost 50% of this district new for the 2022 cycle, Burns ran well above the GOP momentum to beat his opponent by 10-points. The voter registration in this district went from D+7 in 2019 to R+5.5 today. Burns was first elected in 2008 and the challenge for the GOP will be getting presidential voters to vote Republican down the ballot.
HD-142: Anna Payne (D) vs. Joe Hogan (R)*
Registration %: 42-D, 42.5-R, 15.5-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 50.12
2020 Presidential Win %: Biden 50.4
Out of the 30,818 votes cast for state representative in 2022, Representative Joe Hogan won by 76 votes in the tightest of all the House races. This time, Anna Payne, an elected Middletown Township Board Supervisor, and rare-disease advocate, will challenge the first-term GOP incumbent. Prior to his election, Hogan worked in the district office of Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick. Of note, in just the past few months, GOP voter registration has become a bit more favorable since the 2022 cycle, reversing a trend in the years prior where Democratic registrations were on the uptick.
HD-44: Hadley Haas (D) vs. Valerie Gaydos (R)*
Registration %: 42.5-D, 42.5-R, 15-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 54.9
2020 Presidential Win %: Trump 51
Representative Valerie Gaydos seeks to maintain her seat for a fourth term in a district that is deadlocked in voter registration. Her challenger, Hadley Haas, is a marketing and communications professional and community advocate. Gaydos, a former business owner, advocate, and angel investor, ran four-full points ahead of Trump in 2020 and maintained that same victory percentage against her last opponent in 2022 in the western-Allegheny County seat that was largely unchanged in redistricting.
HD-144: Brian Munroe (D)* vs. Daniel McPhillips (R)
Registration %: 41-D, 44-R, 15.5-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 50.81
2020 Presidential Win %: Biden 51.1
Another race in Bucks County confirms a trend: all eyes will be on BucksCo on election night as results here could determine the PA House majority. First-term incumbent Brian Munroe, a Navy veteran and former Radnor Township police officer, faces Daniel McPhillips, a former Warminster Township Supervisor and current Bucks County Recorder of Deeds. Democratic voter performance has trended higher than Democratic registration in this part of the county, but McPhillips will be looking to reverse this momentum in a swingy-presidential cycle.
HD-137: Anna Thomas (D) vs. Joe Emrick (R)*
Registration %: 42.5-D, 39-R, 18.5-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 51.15
2020 Presidential Win %: Trump 63.64
Though Trump carried this district with 63.6% of the vote in 2020, 62% of this district was redrawn since that election. In 2020, Emrick also garnered 63% of the vote but was able to edge his challenger in 2022 under the recently changed maps in a now D-leaning district. The 14-year incumbent will look to do the same against Anna Thomas; a UPenn MPA graduate that is currently partnering with government and community groups on public safety and climate change.
HD-118: James Haddock (D)* vs. McKayla Kathio (R)
Registration %: 52.5-D, 37.5-R, 10-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 52.33
2020 Presidential Win %: Trump 50.9
Incumbent James Haddock is a first-term incumbent in the seat that was previously held by now Transportation Secretary Mike Carroll. This seat, nestled just west of downtown Scranton, has performed well for President Trump, especially in 2016 when he garnered nearly 57% of the vote, which explains why this seat is in the crosshairs for Republicans. In 2020 Trump did less well against the Scranton-native Joe Biden, but with Harris now atop the ticket, a GOP surge in this region could be possible. Haddock, a former banker and Clerk of Courts in Luzerne County is challenged by political newcomer and small business owner, McKayla Kathio.
HD-160: Elizabeth Moro (D) vs. Craig Williams (R)*
Registration %: 35.5-D, 48.5-R, 16-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 52.36
2020 Presidential Win %: Biden 52.9
Though 45% of this district is new, Craig Williams won under the new map by nearly five-points in 2022. This time he will face Democratic Challenger Elizabeth Moro, the small business owner of Centreville Place: Market + Café in Wilmington, DE. Williams boasts a military background as a retired Colonel in the US Marine Corps where he also became a prosecutor, legal counsel to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and federal prosecutor with the Department of Justice.
HD-28 (open): William Petulla (D) vs. Jeremy Shaffer (R)
Registration %: 37.5-D, 47-R, 15.5-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 56 (Mercuri-R)
2020 Presidential Win %: Trump 53.6
With Rob Mercuri stepping down from this seat to challenge Congressman Deluzio, Democrat William Petulla and Republican Jeremy Shaffer face off in a fairly moderate seat in the suburbs north of Pittsburgh. Petulla has a legal background and is a prosecutor in the Allegheny County District Attorney’s office while Shaffer holds a Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon and is an engineer and entrepreneur. Of note, Shaffer ran two close races for both PA State Senate and for Congress in the last two cycles in districts that overlay this House seat.
HD-16: Rob Matzie (D)* vs. Michael Perich (R)
Registration %: 52-D, 35-R, 13-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 56.7
2020 Presidential Win %: Trump 51.1
Along the Ohio River in Beaver County lies a district that has been trending more and more Republican. Trump won the seat with 50.5% of the vote in 2016, 51.1% in 2020, and voter registration for the GOP has increased by nearly five-points since 2019. Incumbent Rob Matzie was first elected in 2008 after working as staff in the PA State Senate for 14 years. His challenger, Michael Perich, has been a volunteer firefighter, mail carrier, steel worker, member of the laborer’s union, and small business owner. Of note, Perich’s son, a graduate of the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, disappeared in 2008 on a classified mission. The loss inspired Perich to start the nonprofit organization Crusaders in America.
HD-172 (open): Sean Dougherty (D) vs. Aizaz Gill
Registration %: 56.5-D, 29-R, 14.5-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 56.9 (Boyle-D)
2020 Presidential Win %: Biden 53.2
Back in April, the primary race on the Democratic side may someday become a six-part Netflix docuseries. In the three months leading to the primary there were videos of then-incumbent Kevin Boyle’s drunken argument in a local bar, to arrest warrants being issued, to being on the lam and still voting in the House, and then arrest warrants being dropped on primary election-eve; all writing like a fictional political thriller. Kevin Boyle, first elected in 2010, was beaten by the convicted former union-boss John Dougherty’s nephew, Sean Dougherty. Dougherty is an attorney that worked in the PA Superior Court, as a public defender in Philadelphia, and in private practice. Gill has a political background, having worked for Philadelphia City Commissioner Al Schmidt, policy director for Business for America, and has worked on successful political campaigns in the Philadelphia-area. This seat has seen GOP registration increases by nearly five-points since 2019 and has seen presidential performance trend roughly the same.
Honorable Mention HD-115: Maureen Madden (D)* vs. Matt Long (R)
Registration %: 47.5-D, 32.5-R, 20-I
2022 Incumbent Win %: 56.30
2020 Presidential Win %: Biden 56.9
First elected in 2016 after two unsuccessful bids in 2012 and 2014, Maureen Madden unseated GOP incumbent David Parker by less than 900 votes. Since then, her victories became more comfortable, winning 60% in 2018, 64% in 2020, and 56% in 2022. Madden was former faculty at East Stroudsburg University. She will face opponent Matt Long, a golf professional who’s been active in political campaigns in this part of the commonwealth for more than a decade.
Other Honorable Mentions: HD-03; HD-18; HD-30; HD-33; HD-80; HD-131; HD-143; HD-187
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*Incumbent