Study: Global Warming Models Off by Wide Margins

Climate Explorer

An old adage says that to predict what someone is likely to do look at what they’ve done. The past record for climatologists and their global warming models isn’t so good. In fact, it’s downright awful.

John R. Christy, a climate scientist at the University of Alabama, recently reviewed 73 climate models going back to 1979. He said that the predictions of every single one over-stated warming.

“We’re not talking about small margins here,” Christy said. “Most were off by factors of three or four.” A recent study by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) backs up Christy’s analysis. The IPCC concluded that the threat of man-made global warming to be not only greatly exaggerated but so small as to be “embedded within the background variability of the natural climate system,” and not dangerous. 

The physical evidence is conclusive. An examination of a new U.N. report that was recently leaked to the press shows sea surface temperature increases have been statistically insignificant for the last 15 years. Antarctic sea ice, moreover, is increasing, not decreasing.

In fact, because of the increased availability and affordability of of natural gas, CO2 emissions are trending downward and according to a 2013 study by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, this trend will continue. The practice of extracting natural gas however, is a practice that the Obama administration and the Pennsylvania Democratic Party condemn.

Exaggeration in climate change predictions is nothing new. In 1972, climatologist Bernt Balchen predicted that warming would melt the polar ice cap by the year 2000. Not only, of course, did that never happen, but recent satellite measurements of Arctic sea ice show it has actually increased this year.