Pennsylvania House of Representatives: Top 12 Races to Watch in 2026
October 2026
Democrats currently hold a narrow 103–100 majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. All 203 seats are on the ballot November 3. The narrow House majority makes the statewide results consequential for legislative leadership, committee assignments, and the policy agenda in Harrisburg.
- PA House District 12 — Butler County
Brandon Dukes (D)* vs. Scott Timko (R)
Dukes won an unusual August 2026 special election by just 98 votes, despite Donald Trump carrying the district by approximately 18 percentage points in 2024. The November rematch provides a comparison between the recent special election and the district’s historically Republican voting patterns. Recent history has shown Democrats outperform in special elections, mainly through mail organization, by 12-18% compared to scheduled elections days.
Past performance: 2026 special election: Dukes (D) +98 votes | 2024 President: Trump +18 points
- PA House District 16 — Beaver County
Robert Matzie (D)* vs. John Costanza (R)
Matzie won reelection in 2024 despite Trump carrying the district by roughly 7.5 percentage points. The district illustrates the difference between presidential and legislative voting in Western Pennsylvania, where some Democratic incumbents continue to receive support in increasingly Republican areas.
Past performance: 2024 House: Matzie (D) 52%–48% | 2024 President: Trump +7.5 points
- PA House District 18 — Bucks County
K.C. Tomlinson (R)* vs. Bryan Allen (D)
Tomlinson won reelection by a comfortable margin in 2024 running more than three points ahead of Trump at the top of the ticket. Democrats maintain a modest registration advantage, creating an interesting contrast between registration, presidential results, and Tomlinson’s legislative performance.
Past performance: 2024 House: Tomlinson (R) 56%–44% | 2024 President: Trump +3 points | Registration: D +3 points
- PA House District 44 — Allegheny County
Valerie Gaydos (R)* vs. Hadley Haas (D)
This rematch follows Gaydos’s 2024 victory over Haas in a district that Trump carried by four percentage points. Republican registration exceeds Democratic registration by approximately two points, providing a comparison between the district’s partisan composition and its recent legislative results.
Past performance: 2024 House: Gaydos (R) 54%–46% | 2024 President: Trump +4 points | Registration: R +2 points
- PA House District 72 — Cambria County
Frank Burns (D)* vs. Phil Rice (R)
Burns narrowly won reelection in 2024 despite Trump carrying the district by an extraordinary 31 percentage points. Centered around Johnstown, the district epitomizes Pennsylvania ticket-splitting and the political realignment of the commonwealth’s former Democratic industrial communities and Burns’s ability to attract substantial crossover support.
Past performance: 2024 House: Burns (D) 51%–49%, margin of 929 votes | 2024 President: Trump +31 points
- PA House District 88 — Cumberland County
Sara Agerton (D) vs. Jeffrey Clark (R)
Republican Sheryl Delozier’s retirement creates an open-seat contest in a district Trump carried by less than one percentage point in 2024. Delozier handily defeated Agerton last cycle, but the absence of an incumbent provides a new measure of voting patterns in the growing West Shore suburbs of Harrisburg.
Past performance: 2024 House: Delozier (R) 55%–45% | 2024 President: Trump +1 point
- PA House District 118 — Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties
Jim Haddock (D)* vs. John Lombardo (R)
Haddock won reelection by approximately 12 percentage points in 2024, even though Trump carried the district by more than seven points. The district reflects Northeastern Pennsylvania’s changing political landscape, where some Democratic legislative candidates have maintained considerably stronger support than their party’s top-of-ticket nominees.
Past performance: 2024 House: Haddock (D) 56%–44% | 2024 President: Trump +7 points
- PA House District 121 — Luzerne County
Jessica McClay (D) vs. Mike Hartosock (R)
The retirement of longtime Democratic Representative Eddie Day Pashinski creates an open contest in a district Trump carried by approximately two points in 2024. Pashinski won his final reelection by ten points, making this an opportunity to examine whether that state legislative voting pattern continues without the longtime incumbent.
Past performance: 2024 House: Pashinski (D) 55%–45% | 2024 President: Trump +2 points
- PA House District 137 — Northampton County
Joe Emrick (R)* vs. Jeff Warren (D)
Emrick won reelection in 2024 by approximately four percentage points, while Trump carried the district by just 1.5 points. Democrats maintain a slight registration advantage, and Warren, a Bethlehem City Council member, is challenging Emrick in a district with closely divided recent election results and with large amounts of national spending at the congressional level influencing down-ballot performance.
Past performance: 2024 House: Emrick (R) 52%–48% | 2024 President: Trump +1.5 points | Registration: Slight D advantage
- PA House District 142 — Bucks County
Joe Hogan (R), incumbent, vs. Kristin Egan (D)
Hogan originally captured this seat in 2022 by fewer than 100 votes before winning reelection by a much wider (10 point) margin in 2024. Trump carried the district by approximately 3.4 points in 2024, while Republicans maintain a modest voter-registration advantage.
Past performance: 2024 House: Hogan (R) 55%–45% | 2024 President: Trump +3.4 points | Registration: R +2.5 points
- PA House District 143 — Bucks County
Shelby Labs (R), incumbent, vs. Tim Hayes (D) and Chris Gambino (Forward Party)
Labs won reelection by approximately 12 points in 2024, while Trump carried the district by five points. The three-candidate contest adds another dimension to a district where Republican voter registration substantially exceeds Democratic registration.
Past performance: 2024 House: Labs (R) 56%–44% | 2024 President: Trump +5 points | Registration: R +13 points
- PA House District 160 — Chester and Delaware Counties
Craig Williams (R), incumbent, vs. Elizabeth Moro (D)
Williams defeated Moro in 2024 despite Kamala Harris carrying the district by approximately 5.4 percentage points. The rematch offers another comparison between presidential and legislative voting, particularly in a suburban district with a Republican registration advantage, but also an area with major gains in Democratic voter performance.
Past performance: 2024 House: Williams (R) 52%–48% | 2024 President: Harris +5.4 points | Registration: R +10 points
Pennsylvania State Senate: Five Races to Watch in the 2026 Midterms
Republicans hold a 27–23 Senate majority, with 25 seats (all even numbered districts) on the November 3 ballot. These five contests are presented in district-number order, not ranked by competitiveness.
- Senate District 6 — Bucks County
Frank Farry (Republican)* vs. Eileen Hartnett Albillar (Democrat)
Farry brings a substantial hometown résumé: 14 years in the Pennsylvania House before his 2022 Senate victory and more than two decades as chief of the Langhorne-Middletown Fire Company. But Albillar is not a political newcomer herself, serving as Bucks County clerk of courts after six years as a Warrington Township supervisor, with a professional background in social work. The district’s population is somewhat older and more college-educated than Pennsylvania overall, with a median age of approximately 44 and bachelor’s degrees held by 43% of adults age 25 and older. Farry’s eight-point victory in 2022 and Trump’s five-point margin in 2024 demonstrate a Republican advantage, but not an overwhelming one. The central question is whether Farry’s longstanding local relationships can withstand a challenge from a Democrat with her own countywide electoral credentials. Bucks County will be competitive up and down the ballot on November 3.
Past performance: 2022 Senate: Farry (R) 53%–45% | 2024 President: Trump +5 points | Registration: R +4.8 points.
- Senate District 16 — Bucks and Lehigh Counties
Jarrett Coleman (Republican)* vs. Mark Pinsley (Democrat)
Coleman, an airline pilot and former Parkland School Board member, entered the Senate in 2022 and chairs the committee responsible for reviewing government restructuring and efficiency proposals. Pinsley, Lehigh County’s controller and an Army veteran, brings competing political credentials. This is a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Coleman won by approximately eight points. The district stretches across Allentown-area suburbs and Upper Bucks County, combining communities such as Macungie and Quakertown with more rural townships. It is more affluent than Pennsylvania overall, with median household income around $108,000 compared with approximately $78,000 statewide. Affordability and development are prominent issues, with both candidates expressing opposition to a proposed data center near Parkland High School. The political question is whether Pinsley can overcome a district that gave Trump a nine-point victory, rather than simply improve on his previous showing.
Past performance: 2022 Senate: Coleman (R) 54%–46% | 2024 President: Trump +9 points | Registration: R +11 points.
- Senate District 24 — Berks and Montgomery Counties
Tracy Pennycuick (Republican)* vs. Christopher Thomas (Democrat) & Michael Schonewolf Jr. (Green Party)
Pennycuick is a retired Army lieutenant colonel and former Black Hawk pilot who served one House term before winning her Senate seat in 2022. Thomas is a former Philadelphia middle-school teacher, volunteer firefighter, and former executive director of the Montgomery County Democratic Committee. Schonewolf, a hospital worker running on the Green Party ticket, adds a third candidate to an already closely divided contest. The district includes Pottstown and Boyertown alongside suburban communities such as Limerick, Skippack, and Collegeville, as well as rural eastern Berks County. The district’s median household income is approximately $105,000, and about 40% of adults age 25 and older hold a bachelor’s degree, illustrating why it should not be viewed as uniformly rural or suburban. Pennycuick’s four-point victory in 2022 and Trump’s two-point margin in 2024 leave less Republican breathing room than in the nearby 16th District. In a race with that history, even a modest third-party vote could matter, although it should not automatically be assumed to come entirely at either major candidate’s expense.
Past performance: 2022 Senate: Pennycuick (R) 52%–48% | 2024 President: Trump +2 points | Registration: R +5.7 points.
- Senate District 36 — Lancaster County
James Malone (Democrat)* vs. Tom Jones (Republican)
Malone, the former mayor of East Petersburg, delivered a major upset in March 2025 when he defeated Republican Josh Parsons by a mere 526 votes in a historically Republican district. Jones is a second-term state representative, landscaping-business owner, and former East Donegal Township supervisor, giving Republicans a challenger with local-government and legislative experience. The district combines small towns, farmland, and growing outer suburbs in a part of Lancaster County that has become more competitive, but remains strongly Republican. Only about 29% of registered voters participated in the special election, making November a substantially different electoral test. With Republicans holding a registration advantage of roughly 22 points and Trump having won by 15, the question is whether Malone’s victory reflected a durable personal coalition or an unusually favorable special-election result. For Democrats, this is a crucial defensive contest: losing it would make the arithmetic of winning Senate control considerably harder.
Past performance: 2025 special election: Malone (D) 50%–49% | 2024 President: Trump +15 points | Registration: R +22 points.
- Senate District 40 — Lackawanna, Monroe, and Wayne Counties
Rosemary Brown (Republican)* vs. Brian Wrightson (Democrat)
Brown served six terms in the Pennsylvania House before entering the Senate in 2022, building a solid legislative record. Wrightson owns Fire Tower Communications and previously directed emergency services for the American Red Cross, bringing a background in rural broadband and disaster response. The district includes all of Monroe County and portions of Lackawanna and Wayne counties, spanning Pocono communities and northeastern Pennsylvania boroughs. The district demographic profile differs considerably from the affluent southeastern suburban districts: median household income is approximately $76,000, and 27% of adults age 25 and older hold a bachelor’s degree. Brown’s ten-point victory in 2022 and Trump’s six-point win in 2024, despite a Democratic registration advantage, demonstrate that party enrollment alone is a poor guide to this district’s psyche. The contest tests whether Wrightson’s community-service background can overcome an incumbent whose past performance and strong name ID has been sturdier than the numbers suggest.
Past performance: 2022 Senate: Brown (R) 55%–45% | 2024 President: Trump +6 points | Registration: D +1.5 points.
Honorable Mention:
Senate District 44 — Berks, Chester, and Montgomery Counties
Katie Muth (Democrat, incumbent) vs. Melissa Dicranian (Republican)
Past performance: 2022 Senate: Muth (D) 56%–44% | 2024 President: Harris +11 points | Registration: D +0.4 points.